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Italy - The political implications of the parliamentary vote on the ESM resolution

Following the approval of the parliamentary resolutions, with a vote that took place on 9 December, giving Prime Minister Conte a mandate for the European Council and Euro Summit, with special regard to the reform of the European Stability Mechanism Treaty, Telos A&S thought it could be useful to take a closer look at the broader political implications of the vote.

In brief:

• During the vote, a total of 30 5-Star Movement MPs in both Houses of Parliament either voted against or refused to take part in the vote, and a total of 23 Forza Italia MPs did not take part in the vote.
• The vote shows that the ESM is not as vital an issue to the 5-Star Movement as many MPs claimed, although 4 of them quit the party in protest, and it seems reasonable to assume that the ratification process of the ESM reform Treaty will also go relatively smoothly.
• Overall, our impression is that the 5- Star Movement has now completed its U-turn on the ESM and on EU integration/EU policies altogether, with very few defections and with no serious repercussion on the stability of the current majority and the current Cabinet.
• Forza Italia came out of the vote as a divided party, and it cannot be ruled out that its faction which did not take part in the vote in disagreement with the party’s formal position might end up drifting apart in the longer term if Berlusconi remains consistently opposed to the ESM treaty reform.
• However, while the vote left individual parties a certain degree of latitude to the extent that it does not have any immediate consequences, Forza Italia may be pressured by the European People’s Party and potential additional defections from the 5-Star Movement to change its position during the ratification process of the ESM reform Treaty.

Telos A&S drafted an Analysis on these recent developments.

If you are interested to know more please contact Telos A&S at telos@telosaes.it

You may download Telos A&S’ Analysis, in English, below.